Personal Opinion: Only a matter of time until Bitcoin will surprise us again

Braydon

New member
We've had the Iran vs USA situation. We've been through the 2008 recession, but that's when Bitcoin was only starting to grow up. We've been through hacks, exploits, scams, hard times our governments have given us and all but today we're still here. Bitcoin - it is still here today. We're growing up like never before together with the Blockchain technology.

This comes with advantages and disadvantages. The only disadvantages I can think of are the way Blockchain will be used at one point against our own freedom. But now, let's talk a bit about the situation we're confronting at the moment. This is not about politics, conspiracy theories or anything else but the way Bitcoin is going to behave during and after the situation we're confronting today.

We're in the middle of the Coronavirus hysteria. Is it as much of a threat and should we be that scared about it? Both "yes" and "no" come with enough proof, so at this point we just do not know what to believe and what not to. However, for one moment, let's put all this virus part aside and talk about the hysteria it provoked all around the world.

At this point, as soon as the virus gets closer to a country, hysteria begins. It's enough to hear that one person has been affected in the country for everyone to go wild. Is this normal? I can assure you it is not. Instead of calming down, everyone is acting as if the apocalypse is here.

We've seen a pretty drastic.. let's name it "crash" in the cryptocurrency markets in the past few days. Have you wondered what has caused this to happen? I have, and the conclusion I've reached is that the markets were not only unprepared for this hysteria but we also have no idea if Bitcoin is going to be a safe haven during these times or not. Mainsteam media is provoking panic all over the Internet and a lot of people fear this virus is a real and very serious threat, so they are looking for information that denies the worst scenario to calm themselves down - I believe this is some psychological effect. Because Bitcoin has never been in this situation before (it has, but when only few knew about it), this is the moment we find out if people have woken up and found out Bitcoin is the key solution to the problem or not. Or in other words, we will just now find out whether the market is starting to reach maturity or not.

Because of the panic, people do not understand what we've just put ourselves into. The enormous amount of money poured into the economy and the immense amount of money people are spending on literally anything and using the virus as an excuse is scary and has irreversible consequences over the global economy. We're most likely going to see a huge upcoming inflation and more debt and this hysteria will eventually end up moving us from the virus threat into a huge recession so smoothly we won't even notice it.

I've posted here about the upcoming recession before. I'm not sure if I've mentioned it before on the forum, but I always say it when talking to somebody: it's not a matter of "if" it happens; it's a matter of when it will. The clock is now ticking fast, China is entering big economical issues so is Europe. I can clearly see around me that people are starting to enter a panic mode caused by the urgent necessity of cash. Unfortunately, this led to people selling their assets and investments in order to get cash for emergency purposes. And one of the investments people first think of selling is Bitcoin. Why? "It's virtual, you cannot use it physically and you cannot buy stuff with it". Let me tell you what - Bitcoin is one of the few existing assets that go against the inflation. You'll never hear the President of China say "we're creating and pouring $174B worth of Bitcoin into circulation". Even precious metals can change their scarcity negatively at any point in the event of a huge mine discovery. In comparison, we will never find more than exactly 21M BTC.

All of this means that Bitcoin will most likely always thrive in any negative scenario. Governments can confiscate your precious metals, but they cannot confiscate your Bitcoin as you can simply bury a piece of paper wallet inside a bottle under the ground and no detector will ever find it. Governments can make your fiat money worth ~$0 with only an announcement, but people will always be willing to pay a decent price for a scarce asset. Governments can warn you the banknotes may be infected with some bacteria, but Bitcoin existing only in a digital form will never come with this danger. Banks may close and seize your funds as if they were never yours, but Bitcoin is only stored and controlled by you and you can give anyone some BTC without a third party asking where that came from and why. Someone might give you an oz of gold and you'll have to trust the gold isn't fake, but you cannot receive a fake satoshi. Get it now? Bitcoin is simply a safety during hard times.

Therefore, the price crash in this market should, in my opinion, not scare you away. People need cash. In my country, I have seen packs of 5 pieces of surgical marks sold at around $100. People are willing to pay that much just for their own safety and health. Hence, they will sell anything they have to get fiat and that includes Bitcoin. Actually, because BTC has never been through such hysteric moments before, it will probably be the first thought of many when it comes to the "what should I sell first?" question. I strongly believe this crash will stay here for a bit (or maybe a bit longer) and then a huge surprise will come.

My personal opinion is we should not panic or panic-sell. If you're in a huge need of cash, commodities should probably be somewhere on the second half, towards the end, of the list of stuff you're thinking to sell. Time will prove whether I'm right or not though, and I wish I could give the best advice ever during these times but I am not willing to take responsibility for anyone's assets, wealth or life. Therefore, this post serves as a summary of the accumulated thoughts I've been having in the recent days.. any critique is more than welcome, so feel free to contradict me
Smiley
 

Arkadi

Member
Of course why would someone in panic mode and sell their stash because of the corona virus scare? Everything will settle down in the next couple of days. And just be checking the price today, crypto markets are in a positive, although the rest of the traditional markets are still red.

So I'm not panicking, I will just sit it out and let those who panic push the sell button. Then smart investors simply will buy those BTC at a cheap price. This has been the formula since the beginning, and it's no secret as well that those who panic usually regrets their decision when Bitcoin goes on another massive run.
 

Pavel

Member
We've seen a pretty drastic.. let's name it "crash" in the cryptocurrency markets in the past few days. Have you wondered what has caused this to happen? I have, and the conclusion I've reached is that the markets were not only unprepared for this hysteria but we also have no idea if Bitcoin is going to be a safe haven during these times or not
i don't think you can make that conclusion based on what we have seen so far.
bitcoin market is a worldwide market and it has not yet been affected that much with the panic in my opinion and that panic is not everywhere anyways.
the panic needs to be a lot bigger than this and other markets have to have serious crashes so that we can start observing how bitcoin would react in that situation, whether it goes up or follows others. so far it has never followed any other market and i don't see that changing. the recent drops could have simply happened because price failed to break the major resistance at $10k-$11k after multiple tries for a long time and like all the previous times it had a bigger correction.
 

Sacha

Member
I wonder why the coronavirus hysteria is so big.
After all,this is a virus with a 2-3% death ratio and only the really old and weak people die.The rest can be cured successfully.
The mainstream media and the social media platforms cause all the hysteria with all the "breaking news" and clickbait BS.
I don't think the hysteria is the only reason behind the Bitcoin price correction.The crypto whales just cashed out big profits at 10K USD price,and they are preparing to buy some cheap bitcoins right before the halving hits and the price goes up.
 

Gennady

Member
We've seen a pretty drastic.. let's name it "crash" in the cryptocurrency markets in the past few days. Have you wondered what has caused this to happen? I have, and the conclusion I've reached is that the markets were not only unprepared for this hysteria but we also have no idea if Bitcoin is going to be a safe haven during these times or not
I don't know if the drop is significant enough to be indicative of market jitters. The way I see it, speculators have been hoarding coins ahead of the halving (considering how hyped it is this time around), then just dropped their coins once they feel they've reached the ceiling. Basically the same thing happened last halving, where prices started going down near the halving date, and the downtrend continued for like 3 months after.

I would like to be surprised though. The halving is still a couple months away, so there's definitely still a lot of action to be had.
 

King

Member
So I'm not panicking, I will just sit it out and let those who panic push the sell button. Then smart investors simply will buy those BTC at a cheap price. This has been the formula since the beginning, and it's no secret as well that those who panic usually regrets their decision when Bitcoin goes on another massive run.
It looks like smart investors are actually unloading, and the dumb money buying the dips. I'm preparing for ~$7500 to be met before the halving takes place, which I'll then look into whether or not it's worth buying. Perhaps there might be a shallow bounce in the coming days, but that's perfect to sell into if you want to get out.

Closing below the 200 daily moving average (which we did two days ago) is generally a sign that you should be preparing for more downside, hence the reason I am short as we speak.

On a more positive note, wherever we end up bottoming, that will very likely turn out to be the best recent entry point. It's hard to be macro bearish with the emission of coins getting cut in half in the coming months.
 

Timofey

Member
I've read the replies so far and I'm pretty surprised how you guys tell me the Bitcoin fall isn't correlated to the Coronavirus outbreak at all as if they're part of two different universes.

Do you guys think that cryptocurrencies are 100% immune to all the other moves in the markets?
Cheesy
Some of the most important stocks USA just had the biggest crash in their history and overall it's been the biggest drop since 2008, and some of you say the stock markets need to have a bigger crash to affect BTC.. Isn't a worse-than-2008 crash enough?! Trillions of dollars have already been wiped out..

It is not like stock traders panic sell in this hysteria while Bitcoin traders are having the best time of their life. My main point was that a stock market crash will provoke a BTC sell-off too and, after a while, Bitcoin will wake up and surprise us with another insane boom.

Keep in mind that Bitcoin has never been through such hysteria before..
 
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